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Prediction for CME (2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-03-02T20:00Z
CME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-06T14:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-03-10T06:43Z (-25.5h, +25.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 1.8%
Prediction Method: ELEvoHI
Prediction Method Note:

ELEvoHI run can be viewed at https://helioforecast.space/cme/2020_march_02_0

ELEvoHI ensemble prediction is based on STEREO-A HI beacon data. Measurements are given below, first column is hours from 2020-03-02T00:00, second column is elongation.

30.9 4.3
35.1 6.8
37.0 8.0
39.1 9.2
50.8 14.2
53.0 15.0
55.1 16.0

Parameter range for ensemble simulation:
angular half width (within ecliptic plane): 30 - 50°
direction of motion (derived from fixed-phi fitting): 126 - 146° (relative to STEREO-A)
inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.4 - 0.8 (1 means circular frontal shape)

From the HI measurements and within the given ranges of the CME frontal shape parameters ELEvoHI produces 275 runs, of which 5 predict an Earth arrival (~1.8%).

MISS!

Lead Time: 47.25 hour(s)
Difference: -88.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2020-03-04T14:45Z

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